It happens every year. Teams begin the NBA season with impressive wins and the media is forced to talk about it because, well, they're winning. What often goes unsaid, is how quickly a team's fortunes can change when adjustments are made around the league and the difficulty of the NBA schedule finally tests a team's fortitude.
This year, the early season champions are the Knicks, Grizzlies, and Clippers. Let's project, and decide who's fire will burn all season long, and who's will flame out by March.
New York Knicks - ESPN loves them, so we should too right? No. New York has enjoyed top-notch offensive production with a small ball lineup featuring Melo at the PF position. Much like Lebron, Melo has consistently won this matchup by getting nearly any shot he wants. When Melo isn't going off, the hot shooting of Jason Kidd, Raymond Felton, and JR Smith has given the Knicks one of the league's best point differentials.
The energy surrounding this team is just better, and it should be noted that all of this is taking place without Amare Stoudemire. When he does return from injury, will he accept a bench role (where he belongs)? If so, the Knicks become a serious threat to Miami in the East. If not (which seems more likely), their ceiling is a 2 seed and 1.5 wins against Miami in the ECF. I expect the shooting of the small ball lineups to cool down. New York is benefiting from kick outs to JR Smith and Kidd while Miami is dishing to Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (see the difference here).
Memphis Grizzlies - In 10-11, Rudy Gay got hurt. In 11-12, Zach Randolph got hurt. For now, the Grizzlies are fully healthy and showing the league how scary they can be. While they don't feature the most accomplished frontcourt, they probably employ the most devastating one. The Gasol-Randolph combo bangs down low, defends, rebounds, sinks mid-range jumpers, and has one very willing passer (Gasol). Night in, night out, these guys present a mismatch somewhere on the floor and tend to nudge the rebounding margin in Memphis' favor.
Surprisingly, Mike Conley is living up to his lengthy contract and keeping the offense flowing. Even Rudy Gay is maturing as a leader by putting together Wade-like defensive numbers. The question mark here is whether the supporting cast can maintain their output. Luckily their team is loaded. Guys like Tony Allen and Jerryd Bayless only need to defend and sink open shots. This is a contender.
Los Angeles Clippers - Employing Chris Paul instantly makes your team relevant. No PG controls every facet of the game quite like CP3. Flank him with the hyper-athletic, Blake Griffin, and you are building towards something special.
I made the argument that they were actually the best team in LA last year, and they seem to have gotten better. Jamal Crawford has given them the perimeter scoring they lacked, and improvements from Eric Bledsoe and Deandre Jordan have boosted an already loaded roster. Imagine, they are racking up wins with Chauncey and Grant Hill in suits! The only concern is their lack of frontcourt depth. Should Jordan and Griffin get in foul trouble, can you count on Ryan Hollins and Ronny Turiaf to hold down the fort? Last year's Easter Conference Finals says no.
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